| When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? | 2014 |
|---|---|
| Is it a coupled forecast system? | Yes |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? | No |
| Atmospheric model resolution | Spectral, T42/L19 |
| Ocean model (if applicable) | MOM3, 0.5o uniform zonal resolution, with a variable meridional resolution of 0.5o between 30o S and 10o N, gradually increasing to 1.5o at 30oN and fixed at 1.58 in the extratropics; 25 layers in the vertical with 17 layers in the upper levels between 7.5 and 450 m. |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions | NCEP/DOE |
| Source of ocean initial conditions | Hindcast uses Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Ocean Data Assimilation (GFDL-ODA); forecast uses pentad Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) anomalies added to the GFDL-ODA climatology to minimize the mismatch between hindcast and forecasts. |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? | N/A |
| Hindcast Period | 1982-2009 |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts | 10 |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? | time-lagged average |
| Ensemble size for the forecast | 40 |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? | 1 per month |
| Length of forecasts | 9 months |
| Data Format | GRIB 1 |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? | The 4th of current month, example DJF lead-1 is from model runs initialized on the 4th of November. |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? | Model’s own drifted climatology (hindcast ensemble mean) as a function of different initialization time and lead months. |
| URL where forecast are displayed | http://www.weathersa.co.za/home/seasonal |
| Point of Contact | Cobus Olivier (cobus.olivier@weathersa.co.za) |
