| When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? | April 2025 |
|---|---|
| Is it a coupled forecast system? | Yes |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? | No |
| Atmospheric model resolution | T359L137 |
| Ocean model (if applicable) | NEMO v3.6 , ORCA 1/4° grid, 75 model levels. Frequency of coupling is 3 hours |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions | ECMWF operational analysis |
| Source of ocean initial conditions | Mercator-ocean analysis |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? | N/A |
| Hindcast period | 1993-2024 |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts | 31 members |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? |
3 lagged initialization (12 runs, 12 runs, 1 run), each built with 1 atmospheric condition from ERA5 and 1 oceanic condition from Mercator analysis. For the 2 first initialization dates, ensemble generation by stochastic dynamics technique (Batté and Déqué 2016). The last initialization date begins the 1st of initialization month. |
| Ensemble size for the forecast | 51 members |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? |
Same method as for the hindcast. 3 lagged initialization (25 runs, 25 runs, 1 run). |
| Length of forecasts | 7 months |
| Data format | GRIB 2 or ascii for digital data Gif for graphics |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? | 13th of each month |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? | Departures from the model climate estimated by the hindcast integrations |
| URL where forecast(maps) are displayed | http://seasonal.meteo.fr/ |
| Point of Contact |
JM Soubeyroux (Jean-Michel.soubeyroux@meteo.fr) Christine Quicot (christine.quicot@meteo.fr) Christian Viel (Christian.viel@meteo.fr) |
