| When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? | May 2020 |
|---|---|
| Is it a coupled forecast system? | No |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? | Yes. It is an atmospheric model withe presisted SSTs |
| Atmospheric model resolution | T126L42 |
| Ocean model (if applicable) | NA |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions | ERA-5 |
| Source of ocean initial conditions | NA |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? | Persisted SST anomaly from NCEP(Reynolds SST OI v2) of the previous month of lead 0 |
| Hindcast period | 1981-2010 |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts | 10 ensemble members |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? | 10 different atmospheric initial conditions(lagged approach using 10 daily initial conditions from ERA-5) |
| Ensemble size for the forecast | 15 ensemble members |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? | 15 different atmospheric initial conditions(lagged approach usgin 15 daily initial conditions from ERA-5) |
| Length of forecasts | 6 months, from lead 0 to 6 |
| Data format | Grib 1 |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? | Around the 15th of each calendar month |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? | All individual forecast ensemble members and the corresponding climatology are provided for each forecast month, from lead 0 to 6, so that anomalies can be computed. |
| URL where forecast are displayed | https://sazonal.cptec.inpe.br/ |
| Point of Contact | Dr.Caio Coelho (caio.coelho@inpe.br) |
