| Is it a coupled forecast system? |
No |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? |
Yes. It is an atmospheric model withe presisted SSTs |
| Atmospheric model resolution |
T126L42 |
| Ocean model (if applicable) |
NA |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions |
ERA-5 |
| Source of ocean initial conditions |
NA |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? |
Persisted SST anomaly from NCEP(Reynolds SST OI v2) of the previous month of lead 0 |
| Hindcast period |
1981-2010 (until August 2026), 1991-2020 (from September 2026) |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts |
10 ensemble members (until August 2026), 15 ensemble members (from September 2026) |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? |
10 different atmospheric initial conditions (lagged approach using 10 daily initial conditions from ERA-5, until August 2026), 15 different atmospheric initial conditions (lagged approach using 15 daily initial conditions from ERA-5, from September 2026) |
| Ensemble size for the forecast |
15 ensemble members |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? |
15 different atmospheric initial conditions(lagged approach usgin 15 daily initial conditions from ERA-5) |
| Length of forecasts |
6 months, from lead 0 to 6 |
| Data format |
Grib 1 |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? |
Around the 15th of each calendar month |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? |
All individual forecast ensemble members and the corresponding climatology are provided for each forecast month, from lead 0 to 6, so that anomalies can be computed. |
| URL where forecast are displayed |
https://sazonal.cptec.inpe.br/ |
| Point of Contact |
Dr.Caio Coelho (caio.coelho@inpe.br) |
