| When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? | System name: JMA/MRI-CPS4 Date Implemented: January 2026 |
|---|---|
| Is it a coupled forecast system? | Yes |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? | No |
| Atmospheric model resolution | TL319 (approx. 55km), 128 vertical layers |
| Ocean model (if applicable) | 0.25ºx0.25º on a tripolar grid, 60 vertical layers |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions | Global Analysis (GA)+ Ozone Analysis(Re-forecast: JRA-3Q + Ozone Analysis) |
| Source of ocean initial conditions | 4DVAR(coarse res) + IAU(eddy permitting res), daily (*) |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? | N/A |
| Hindcast period | Dec1990-Dec2020 |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts | 6-month prediction: 5 members per day(85 members are used for statistical forecasts by a Lagged Average Forecast (LAF) method) 1-month prediction: 50 members per week |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? | Atmosphere: BGM and SPPT, Ocean: Ensemble perturbations approximating analysis error covariances using minimization histories |
| Ensemble size for the forecast | 5 per day |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? | Atmosphere: BGM and SPPT, Ocean: Ensemble perturbations approximating analysis error covariance using minimization histories |
| Length of forecasts | Up to 7 months |
| Data format | GRIB 2 |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? | 5 member ensemble is available everyday |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? | Calculate anomalies against daily normal baseline data sampled from 30-year hindcast data with linear interpolation of nearest (before/after) 2 days |
| URL where forecast are displayed | http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/index.html |
| Point of Contact | Mr. Takuya Komori (komori@met.kishou.go.jp) |
