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System Configuration Information

These information can be changed if the corresponding operational model is modified.

GPC Pretoria

GPC Pretoria
When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? 2014
Is it a coupled forecast system? Yes
Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? No
Atmospheric model resolution Spectral, T42/L19
Ocean model (if applicable) MOM3, 0.5o uniform zonal resolution, with a variable meridional resolution of 0.5o between 30o S and 10o N, gradually increasing to 1.5o at 30oN and fixed at 1.58 in the extratropics; 25 layers in the vertical with 17 layers in the upper levels between 7.5 and 450 m.
Source of atmospheric initial conditions NCEP/DOE
Source of ocean initial conditions Hindcast uses Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Ocean Data Assimilation (GFDL-ODA); forecast uses pentad Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) anomalies added to the GFDL-ODA climatology to minimize the mismatch between hindcast and forecasts.
If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? N/A
Hindcast Period 1982-2009
Ensemble size for the hindcasts 10
How is the hindcast ensemble configured? time-lagged average
Ensemble size for the forecast 40
How is the forecast ensemble configured? 1 per month
Length of forecasts 9 months
Data Format GRIB 1
What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? The 4th of current month, example DJF lead-1 is from model runs initialized on the 4th of November.
How are the forecast anomalies constructed? Model’s own drifted climatology (hindcast ensemble mean) as a function of different initialization time and lead months.
URL where forecast are displayed http://www.weathersa.co.za/home/seasonal
Point of Contact Cobus Olivier (cobus.olivier@weathersa.co.za)