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System Configuration Information

These information can be changed if the corresponding operational model is modified.

GPC Exeter

GPC Exeter
When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? System name: GloSea5-GC2
Implemented: February 2015
Is it a coupled forecast system? Yes
Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? No
Atmospheric model resolution 0.83 lat x 0.56 long x 85 levels
Ocean model (if applicable) NEMO: 0.25 lat x 0.25 lon 75 levels
Source of atmospheric initial conditions ERA-interim for the period 1993-2015 and Met Office NWP operational analyses from 2010 to present
Source of ocean initial conditions Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (NEMOVAR)
If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? N/A
Hindcast period 1993-2015
Ensemble size for the hindcasts 161 members (from 4 different start dates, see below), 644 members in total
How is the hindcast ensemble configured? Lagged approach, 7 members per start date on the 1st, 9th, 17th and 25th of each calendar month. All 7 members share the same initial conditions and differ only due to schemes to represent model uncertainties
Ensemble size for the forecast 42
How is the forecast ensemble configured? Lagged approach, 2 members per start date (every day). All 2 members share the same initial conditions and differ only due to schemes to represent model uncertainties. These members are accumulated each week to make up 14 members with a nominal Monday start date. The 3 weeks then make the total of 42 members
Length of forecasts 6 months
Data format GRIB 2
What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? 11st of the month
How are the forecast anomalies constructed? Departures from the model climate estimated by the hindcast integrations
URL where forecast are displayed http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks
Point of Contact

Richard Graham (richard.graham@metoffice.gov.uk)
Peter J. McLean (peter.mclean@metoffice.gov.uk)